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A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.

That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.

"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Each authors two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.

Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."

Appeal for Wider Dialogue

Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."